HUGH PAVLETICH
Former Fellow - Urban Development Institute of Australia
Former President –
Southern Division – Property Council of New Zealand
Co author – Annual
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
CONTACT
+64 3 343 9944
Christchurch, New Zealand
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General update - June 2018 Welcome to Performance Urban Planning
DEFINITION OF AN AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETFor metropolitan areas to rate as 'affordable' and ensure that housing bubbles are not triggered, housing prices should not exceed three times gross annual household earnings. To allow this to occur, new starter housing of an acceptable quality to the purchasers, with associated commercial and industrial development, must be allowed to be provided on the urban fringes at 2.5 times the gross annual median household income of that urban market (refer Demographia Survey Schedules for guidance). The critically important Development Ratios for this new fringe starter housing, should be 17 - 23% serviced lot / section cost - to balance the actual housing construction. Ideally through a normal building cycle, the Median Multiple should move from a Floor Multiple of 2.3, through a Swing Multiple of 2.5 to a Ceiling Multiple of 2.7 - to ensure maximum stability and optimal medium and long term performance of the residential construction sector. …November 2017…The new New Zealand Governments programme…It's official: The Government is promising to remove Auckland's urban growth boundary as part of the legislative programme for this term…[read more] Remove barriers that are stopping Auckland growing up and out Labour will remove the Auckland urban growth boundary and free up density controls. This will give Auckland more options to grow, as well as stopping landbankers profiteering and holding up development. New developments, both in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand, will be funded through innovative infrastructure bonds....[read more] …March 2017…New Zealand's Planning Law (Resource Management Act) Amendments…then Opposition Paties cooperation…with extract Newsroom report by Bernard Hickey…It is important too to understand the significance of the opposition political parties working together within the MMP environment…as illustrated with the RMA amendment legislation back in March (much the same with the HASHA legislation September 2016)…reported by Bernard Hickey of Newsroom soon after…[read more] Just in case you missed it…One curious coda to the RMA debate that concluded last week was that the Opposition parties plus ACT and United Future all voted again during the third reading debate for amendments that would have abolished Rural Urban Growth Boundaries and allowed the financing of infrastructure bonds paid for with targeted rates. The amendments were defeated by National and the Maori Party. The irony of a Government that has railed against restrictions on land development by councils voting against removing those restrictions should be noted. And also that the proposal for infrastructure bonds was backed by the right-leaning New Zealand Initiative and voted for by the Greens and Labour. Strange times indeed. …May 2016…Previous Government then Housing Minister Nick Smith…The new position by the Labour opposition calling for an abolition of city limits has been welcomed by Building and Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith. "This is a welcome repositioning by Labour. Tight city limits and not allowing intensification is at the core of Auckland's housing problems. It is limiting new housing developments, driving up section and house prices and encouraging land banking…[read more] …November 2017…following New Zealand…housing affordability becoming dominant political issue in Australia…IPSOS poll…report by Matt Wade of The Sydney Morning Herald……The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, which asks respondents to select the three most important issues facing the community, shows housing has jumped from sixth place in Victoria to second place since 2014. In NSW, housing has topped the list of concerns for the past three quarters. Half of NSW respondents now rate housing as one of the nation's most important challenges compared with less than a third in 2014. Other polls have drawn attention to the growing public unease about housing costs. An Essential Vision survey that asks respondents nationally to nominate the "three most important issues for government" shows housing affordability climbed from sixth ranking to second between 2014 and 2017…[read more]
2018 14th ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHIA INTERNATIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY SURVEY
Introduction Section - Message from Hugh Pavletich . 'My home country New Zealand is the global leader in dealing with political impediments, so that the supply of new affordable housing is restored. The public conversation to restore affordable housing began in earnest early 2005, with the release of the 1st Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. Back in 2007, then Opposition Leader (now Sir) John Key made it clear within this interview that lack of land supply was the major problem. This has been a near 14 year process of evolutionary change, with the engagement of the public and responsible media. In turn this has pressured politicians to respond. Public opinion is the driver, as increasing numbers of New Zealanders better understand the true costs of unnecessary politically induced housing inflation to themselves and their wider families. The initial advocacy phase ran through to October 2012, with the major Government announcement to focus on land supply, infrastructure financing, process and construction costs. Over recent years broader consensus ( more , more ) has taken place. To illustrate further, just prior to Christmas 2017, Stephen Sellwood of Infrastructure New Zealand and Bill Evans of major builder Flatcher Living repeated again, that the focus must be on land supply and the appropriate debt financing of infrastructure. We are now moving to the implementation phase, with a recent change to a centre - left Labour led reformist government. Historically in New Zealand, Labour has been the political party of reform. More extensive information is available at my archival website Performance Urban Planning. Note in particular the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern / Housing Minister Phil Twyford section near the top of the=is website, to better understand the new governments proposals to restore housing affordability.' Inaugural New Zealand IPSOS Survey… A recent survey on key issues concerning New Zealanders has shown that housing accessibility and affordability are at the forefront of people's minds. The first of the quarterly New Zealand Issues Monitor reports, run by global market research company Ipsos, interviewed 610 respondents over the age of 16. It sought to track what New Zealanders were concerned about, who is worried about what and which political parties are seen to be best able to improve matters. ... [read more] 
The Salvation Army's casting doubts on the ability of government departments to deliver on the Kiwibuild affordable housing programme and is calling for establishment of an expert group to deliver the required houses. A media statement from the Salvation Army said that "growing uncertainty" over whether Kiwibuild can "reignite the Kiwi dream" of homeownership needs to be countered. "Recent reports from Treasury and The Chief Executive of New Zealand Certified Builders indicating the programme may not be able to deliver the housing required creates uncertainty for families who see Kiwibuild as their path to homeownership," the statement said…[read more] Lessons from Greater Christchurch . READ MORE: 2018 ArticlesGroup 1 Housing Minister Phil Twyford says Ministry of Housing and Urban Development will help drive KiwiBuild and will be operational by the end of the year | interest.co.nz Auckland business confidence in 'free fall' - Chamber of Commerce - NZ Herald "Bank of Mum & Dad," Huge Prop under UK Housing Bubble, is Running Out of Liquidity ... Don Quijones ... Wolf Street Sydney auction clearance rate plunges into 40s - MacroBusiness RBNZ Governor backs sub-prime lending - MacroBusiness Mortgage Measures | Central Bank of Ireland A Deeper Dive Into Loan To Income Ratios . Martin North . DFA / Youtube Mortgage rejections soar to 40% of applications as (Loan to Income) LTI capped - MacroBusiness The real ticking time bomb for the Tories is home ownership - Telegraph Priti Patel - Wikipedia Priti Patel: The Conservative party is retreating from the battle of ideas | PoliticsHome.com Priti Patel: Conservatives no longer the party of meritocracy and have become lazy in the battle of ideas Group 2 Reserve Bank Governor 'scared' by level of mortgage debt in NZ | Newshub RBNZ Governor backs sub-prime lending - MacroBusiness Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says if the aim is to get more people into houses, it makes sense restrictions don't apply to KiwiBuild | interest.co.nz Analysis of new mortgage lending shows that the slump in Auckland home sales has affected all types of buyers from people moving up the property ladder to investors and first home buyers | interest.co.nz Christchurch cycleways to cost $252m as city council proposes delaying completion | Stuff.co.nz NZ Initiative's Eric Crampton highlights the risk ratepayers have if local Councils get into financial trouble and says we all need to keep an eye on whether Council debt-funded projects make sense | interest.co.nz Earning up to $10k a month, mum says 'unfair' to say she's rich | Susan Edmunds | Stuff.co.nz Group 3 Westpac economists say the stepping up of Kiwibuild activity will be even 'more gradual' than Treasury's forecasts that have been criticised by the Housing Minister | interest.co.nz NEW ZEALAND: Salvation Army questions ability of government departments to handle the flagship house building plan; seeks establishment of group to deliver houses 'quickly and at affordable cost' | interest.co.nz Sydney light rail: 'Horror story' of cost overruns and missed deadlines ... News Com Au Second firm takes legal action over Sydney's 'disastrous' light rail ... Sydney Morning Herald Twyford ignoring advice that buses will cost a third of light rail | Kiwiblog Government to exercise 'caution' when deciding which private developments to underwrite as a part of KiwiBuild; Consultant says the real risk with the scheme is that not enough developers get on board | interest.co.nz Group 4 Westpac's (New Zealand CEO) David McLean says flat house prices for 20-30 years would gradually correct housing unaffordability without igniting the 'economic carnage' a big price drop would cause | interest.co.nz How come the container industry copes with growth but too many housing markets dont ? ... Hugh Pavletich New Zealanders feel better about housing market (ASB Survey) | Fairfax - Stuff.co.nz 'Seriously we just go back to survival mode' - High living costs drive Kiwis back across the ditch ... TVNZ Rents across New Zealand soar, hit new highs ... NZ Herald Group 5 Despite all the talk of big public infrastructure projects, the construction industry seems to be in a downward track with significantly less concrete being poured in the first quarter of 2018 | interest.co.nz More Auckland houses for sale, but fewer buyers | Newshub Freddie Mac - Mortgage Rates Move Up to Highest Level in Seven Years Japanese-style sleeping pods in central Auckland dismantled - Tess Nichol - NZ Herald Budget 2018: The 'blathering' is almost over as Govt set to reveal spending plans - Audrey Young OPINION - NZ Herald NZ Government caves on housing affordability - MacroBusiness Australia Housing Minister apologises for 'confusion' on price of KiwiBuild homes | Newshub Group 6 Kevin Atkinson: New ways of financing are needed to boost house building ... NZ Herald KiwiBuild houses $50,000 more than Govt claimed - Judith Collins National Party | Scoop News Can the cost of zoning in Sydney really be $489k per house ? ... Peter Tulip RBA speech ... YouTube 'National disgrace': cost of housing driving up child poverty rates | Australia news | The Guardian Prefab construction 'no silver bullet': Calls for Budget to address housing, infrastructure - Anne Gibson - NZ Herald Garner says Kiwibuild a hoax ... Kiwiblog Housing through the decades, what is affordable? | Newshub A generation of mortgage slaves: Auckland's house prices leave home owners mired in debt | Stuff.co.nz Bank of mum and dad could be NZ's sixth largest first-home mortgage lender ... Rob Stock ... Stuff / Fairfax New Zealand Group 7 Mortgages rejected with "unprecedented strictness" (really ?) - MacroBusiness Australia Will KiwiBuild be another broken promise by the Government? | Newshub 'Seriously we just go back to survival mode' - High living costs drive Kiwis back across the ditch ... TVNZ Government asks to buy developers' plans to contribute to KiwiBuild target ... Fairfax / Stuff NZ UPDATE - New (IPSOS) survey reveals housing, poverty and healthcare most concern New Zealanders - NZ Herald How state governments plundered house prices - Leith van Onselen - MacroBusiness Australia Lincoln (South fringe Christchurch) : From mill town to boom town ... John McCrone ... The Press Housing and poverty biggest concerns for Kiwis - (IPSOS) survey - NZ Herald NZ job ads fall 2.1 percent in April -ANZ Bank - Nasdaq.com Group 8 Union calls for Royal Commission into NZ banking practices | Scoop News Kiwi vs Kangaroo: Are New Zealand banks different to scandal-hit Australian banks? | Stuff.co.nz Kiwi banks must be transparent if they are to avoid Aussie parents' trust issues ... Patrick Smellie OPINION ... Fairfax / Stuff NZ Is Australia's Housing Boom (Finally) Coming to an End? - WSJ Number of troubled households seeking to refinance loans doubles | afr.com Property 'Minksy moment' builds as ponzi-borrowers can't refinance - MacroBusiness The scale of New Zealand's infrastructure deficit is 'massive' and can't be fixed without billions of dollars of private capital - Jason Walls takes a look at how the Government plans to woo investors | interest.co.nz There's a new type of poverty hurting the middle class ... Sydney Morning Herald A New Type Of Poverty Is Crushing The Middle Class | Zero Hedge People in Transit-Rich Neighborhoods Don't Spend Less on Transportation ... CityLab Group 9 Dr Michael Bassett What an ex-Labour Minister (Michael Bassett) really thinks about Jacinda Ardern's Government ... Noted Home ownership for young families plummets across Britain as millennials are hit by housing crisis and forced into cramped rental properties ... UK Daily Mail Close Of Business ... Australian Broadvasting Corporation Australia 'paradise' for white-collar criminals, says ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft Moral compass lost in sea of easy money ... Adele Ferguson ... Sydney Morning Herald RBNZ Governor says differences between deposit insurance & minimum deposit not frozen in OBR scenario are 'technicalities', NZ banks searching for 'skeletons' against backdrop of Aussie Royal Commission | interest.co.nz Group 10 AMP could face criminal charges for misleading ASIC, banking royal commission told - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) New type of poverty hurting middle class ... The Canberra Times UBS: 'Liar loans' much worse than we thought - MacroBusiness Banks dive as UBS raises home loan concerns ... Sydney Morning Herald MLS Press Releases and Archive - HAR members - HAR.com Why the affordable housing crisis is a mobility crisis, too - Curbed The future Auckland market ... Barfoot & Thompson CoreLogic: First-time buyers prefer houses ... OneRoof Keeping a roof over my kids' heads is impossible ... Rachel Miller ... Fairfax / Stuff New Zealand Auckland MÄori Housing Summit to focus on development opportunities | Voxy.co.nz Group 11 Welcome to the "Australian finance crisis of 2018" - MacroBusiness Housing Affordability Fires Up New Zealand's Voters - Bloomberg - 30 August 2017 The royal commission changed this week - from awful and dumb to utterly shocking - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Richard Florida - Wikipedia The Global Housing Crisis ... Florida and Schneider ... CityLab A generation of mortgage slaves: Auckland's house prices leave home owners mired in debt ... Helen King ... Stuff / Fairfax New Zealand A home truth for the Tories: fix the housing crisis or lose power for ever ... The Spectator John Healey (politician) - Wikipedia Labour plans to make landowners sell to state for fraction of value | Politics | The Guardian Britain's housing market is broken. Here's how Labour will fix it | John Healey | Opinion | The Guardian Commonwealth Bank charged fees to dead clients, royal commission hears | Australia news | The Guardian ANZ economists say the cost of building a new house has become more attractive relative to the cost of buying an existing one | interest.co.nz Group 12 Value of London flats slashed by Grenfell-style cladding | Society | The Guardian Labour drop 5% in ONCB poll | Kiwiblog The Minister of Transport Phil Twyford says there is a "great deal of interest" from private capital providers when it comes to investing in New Zealand's transport infrastructure - he is welcoming their interest | interest.co.nz As Government signals big light rail spend, public transport concerns grow in US ... Michael Daly ... Stuff / Fairfax New Zealand Governments backflipping worthy of gold - Judith Collins - NZ National Party Record 64 million Americans live in multigenerational households | Pew Research Center Brave New World? 64 Million Americans Live In Multi-Generational Households | Zero Hedge New Zealand National Opposition Leader John Key on Housing Reform 2007 - YouTube NZ Government Housing Affordability Announcement - 29 October 2012 - YouTube Group 13 Speech from the throne pledges that Auckland's urban limit will be removed and density controls will be freed up in this term of Government | interest.co.nz The Economic Implications Of Housing Supply - Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko The Effect of Zoning on Housing Prices ... Reserve Bank of Australia Discussion Paper Rampant land inflation behind 300% increase in home prices - Leith van Onselen - MacroBusiness Australia Housing in Queensland: affordability and preferences | APO Pulte Homes Suburban Development Phoenix Arizona South Auckland teacher commutes 180km a day because of housing costs ... Fairfax / Stuff Rodney Dickens says section prices are the key to solving the housing affordability problem, not higher density around transport hubs. He warns against force-feeding in areas that won't deliver the intended outcome Ardern and Twyford are betting their futures on voters backing their zealotry | Wayne Mapp | The Spinoff Group 14 Auckland tram project to start in two years: Twyford - NZ Herald Sydney light rail contractor Acciona suing NSW Government; further delays to construction likely - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Toronto Real Estate's Harsh New Reality: Buyer Beware ... Huffington Post Planning racket delivers farmers massive windfall - MacroBusiness Australia (behind paywall) THE URBAN CONTAINMENT EFFECT (ZONING EFFECT) ON AUSTRALIAN HOUSE PRICES ... WENDELL COX ... NEW GEOGRAPHY Housing Minister supports UN call for housing strategy | Maori Television Paul Keating - Wikipedia AUSTRALIA ... Keating: "The housing boom is really over" - MacroBusiness Au Group 15 United Nations calls on NZ to adopt human rights-based national housing strategy | Stuff.co.nz Housing - New Zealand Labour Party NZ Labour Government takes aim at property speculators - MacroBusiness Australia Malcom McLean and Containerisation | Maersk Line - YouTube The Power of Outsiders - Video - NYTimes.com This Man Is the Father of Modern American Suburbia | Smithsonian Why has a generation given up on having children? ... UK Telegraph Zoning regulations adding hundreds of thousands dollars to price of new houses: RBA - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Group 16 ABC 7.30 Report does 'liar loans' and the interest-only time bomb - MacroBusiness 'They can see I've a gambling problem': Banks' lending practices laid bare at royal commision | Australia news | The Guardian Investor caution and stretched housing affordability will prevent Auckland housing from taking off again, economists from country's biggest mortgage lender say | interest.co.nz 'Long and painful': Peter Costello's rate warning for households ... Sydney Morning Herald l Australia's Greenspan moment arrives - MacroBusiness Australia Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) - YouTube Mike Hosking: Memo, council planners - get your hands off my car - NZ Herald The Daisy apartments: why did we do it? ... Mark Todd ... The Spinoff Group 17 Royal Commission bombshells - great to watch, painful to receive ... Sydney Morning Herald Housing Minister Phil Twyford is anticipating a significant chuck of the Government's KiwiBuild homes will be prefabricated and is anticipating bringing overseas companies to NZ to get the work done | interest.co.nz Hobart's housing crisis: Australian and international 'fixes' up for discussion - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Banking royal commission: Whistleblower alleges cash for loans bribery ring at NAB - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) ABC 7.30 Report does 'liar loans' and the interest-only time bomb - MacroBusiness Housing affordability out of sync with incomes ... SMH Can first home buyers afford a million dollar house? | Stuff.co.nz Robertson seeks investment community help for new ideas on funding infrastructure | The National Business Review Ruling out greenbelt removes a key lever to resolving our housing crisis ... Ryan Bourne . UK Telegraph AUSTRALIA: RBA: Australia's housing planning system hopelessly broken - MacroBusiness Group 18 Homebuyers are paying a heavy price for zoning restrictions: Reserve Bank ... Sydney Morning Herald Christchurch: A Bureaucratically Buggered City | Scoop News New report blames Cathedral Square and red zone delays on planning set up | Stuff.co.nz Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) - YouTube Phil Twyford: The man tasked with fixing Auckland's housing woes - NZ Herald AUSTRALIA: Housing risks 'catastrophic': Grattan Institute ... Sydney Morning Herald NAB (National Australia Bank) tightens loan-to-income limits - MacroBusiness Australia ABC's The Business does liar loans - MacroBusiness Australia New Reserve Bank paper puts estimate of Auckland housing shortage far higher than previous RBNZ estimates; says if construction worker shortfall continues it will be 'difficult' to overcome the shortage | interest.co.nz New National leader says there is a housing crisis in NZ | Radio New Zealand News Group 19 "We Don't Belong Here Anymore" - Even Landlords Are Fleeing The Bay Area | Zero Hedge Cycling through Homeless Camps on Santa Ana River Bike Trail in Orange County California - YouTube Homeless People in Anaheim, California or Third World Country? SMH readers reject Infrastructure Australia's Sardine Sydney vision - MacroBusiness Sydney's housing affordability nightmare - MacroBusiness Middle-income millennials priced out of homes market ... Institute of Fiscal Studies Report ... Financial Times Tories fear middle-class millennials priced out of housing market could sink party at next election Tories hire army of tweeters to take social media fight to Labour ... UK Telegraph The gorgeous photos of the derelict properties you still can't afford ... The Guardian EARTHQUAKE REALITY HASN'T YET HIT B.C ... THE PROVINCE Real estate industry casts doubt on B.C.'s housing affordability plan - British Columbia - CBC News SYDNEY AUSTRALIA 1966 - YOUTUBE VIDEO A new wave of female employment is coming to the rescue of the Aussie economy Dear Editor: 'The bottom line is that many women are stressed and overworked' - Independent.ie Group 20 NAB (National Australia Bank) tightens loan-to-income limits - MacroBusiness Australia Russell Lynch: If the Tories can't do housing, then what are they for? ... Evening Standard Millenials property woes could see Corbyn IN POWER, PM warned | Politics | News | Express.co.uk Middle-income millennials priced out of homes market ... Istitute of Giscal Studies Report ... Financial Times Tories fear middle-class millennials priced out of housing market could sink party at next election Phil Twyford backs 'right-wing, red meat' Judith Collins | Newshub NZ Labour Government targets the property speculators - Leith van Onselen - MacroBusiness Shortage of affordable houses continues, warns BNM (Malaysia Central Bank) | Free Malaysia Today Land prices hit record high amid supply shortfall across the country ... news com au The cost of residential land in Australia is going through the roof | Business Insider There is a danger in over-examining issues such as the housing market, rather than just rolling up sleeves and taking action ... David Hargreaves ... Interest Co NZ Group 21 A 'stocktake' of the housing market commissioned by the Govt paints a 'sobering impact of the housing crisis, particularly on children', says Housing Minister Phil Twyford | interest.co.nz Bill Gates just bought 25,000 acres in Arizona to build a new 'smart city' ... Business Insider Pulte Homes Suburban Development Phoenix Arizona Hagley Ave resident criticises Williams Corporation's planned Christchurch development for lack of car parking ... The Press Christchurch NZ Hong Kong breaks record for 'severely unaffordable' housing ... Financial Times China developers retreat from Hong Kong property market ... Financial Times The landmines in Ardern's next 1000 days ... Bernard Hickey ... Newsroom US$381 to rent a sofa bed and toilet: welcome to Hong Kong | Asia Times Group 22 Affordable housing fears could hit supply of teachers - NZ Herald Among U.S. Mayors, There's Widespread Concern About Housing Costs, BU Survey Finds | Bostonomix Tauranga overtakes Auckland as most difficult market to buy property | Newshub Housing affordability hits 'crisis' point in Tauranga | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey | Scoop News Auckland housing: A foundation to build on - OPINION Bill Evans of Fletchers - NZ Herald Housing needs big investment in the future ... OPINION Stephen Sellwood of Infrastructure NZ ... NZ Herald Poll shows local government has a reputation problem | The National Business Review Public sector boss warns escalating CEO pay is 'not sustainable' | Stuff.co.nz Why don't we have Boomtowns anymore? ... Brendon Harre ... Medium Com Group 23 NZ's new housing minister lashes policy malfeasance - Leith van Onselen ... MacroBusiness Australia 'This is a social and economic disaster for the country' - Phil Twyford hits out over housing report | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ Officials: Housing causes 'stark' inequality between young and old ... Stuff / Fairfax NZ Cottage sells for $7.5 million in new record but number of pre - Christmas auctions decline ... nine com au NZ housing minster lays out reform masterpiece - MacroBusiness Australia Sydney has become the bane of Australia's property market | Your Mortgage Australia The future of housing in New Zealand | Beehive.govt.nz Talking housing affordability across the globe with Hugh Pavletich
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