HUGH PAVLETICH
Former Fellow - Urban Development Institute of Australia
Former President –
Southern Division – Property Council of New Zealand
Co author – Annual
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
CONTACT
+64 3 343 9944
Christchurch, New Zealand
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General update - November 2017 The Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys were conceived late 2004 by Wendell Cox and myself, with the first one released early 2005. [more] Welcome to Performance Urban Planning
DEFINITION OF AN AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETFor metropolitan areas to rate as 'affordable' and ensure that housing bubbles are not triggered, housing prices should not exceed three times gross annual household earnings. To allow this to occur, new starter housing of an acceptable quality to the purchasers, with associated commercial and industrial development, must be allowed to be provided on the urban fringes at 2.5 times the gross annual median household income of that urban market (refer Demographia Survey Schedules for guidance). The critically important Development Ratios for this new fringe starter housing, should be 17 - 23% serviced lot / section cost - to balance the actual housing construction. Ideally through a normal building cycle, the Median Multiple should move from a Floor Multiple of 2.3, through a Swing Multiple of 2.5 to a Ceiling Multiple of 2.7 - to ensure maximum stability and optimal medium and long term performance of the residential construction sector. …November 2017…The new New Zealand Governments programme…It's official: The Government is promising to remove Auckland's urban growth boundary as part of the legislative programme for this term…[read more] Remove barriers that are stopping Auckland growing up and out Labour will remove the Auckland urban growth boundary and free up density controls. This will give Auckland more options to grow, as well as stopping landbankers profiteering and holding up development. New developments, both in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand, will be funded through innovative infrastructure bonds....[read more] …March 2017…New Zealand's Planning Law (Resource Management Act) Amendments…then Opposition Paties cooperation…with extract Newsroom report by Bernard Hickey…It is important too to understand the significance of the opposition political parties working together within the MMP environment…as illustrated with the RMA amendment legislation back in March (much the same with the HASHA legislation September 2016)…reported by Bernard Hickey of Newsroom soon after…[read more] Just in case you missed it…One curious coda to the RMA debate that concluded last week was that the Opposition parties plus ACT and United Future all voted again during the third reading debate for amendments that would have abolished Rural Urban Growth Boundaries and allowed the financing of infrastructure bonds paid for with targeted rates. The amendments were defeated by National and the Maori Party. The irony of a Government that has railed against restrictions on land development by councils voting against removing those restrictions should be noted. And also that the proposal for infrastructure bonds was backed by the right-leaning New Zealand Initiative and voted for by the Greens and Labour. Strange times indeed. …May 2016…Previous Government then Housing Minister Nick Smith…The new position by the Labour opposition calling for an abolition of city limits has been welcomed by Building and Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith. "This is a welcome repositioning by Labour. Tight city limits and not allowing intensification is at the core of Auckland's housing problems. It is limiting new housing developments, driving up section and house prices and encouraging land banking…[read more] …November 2017…following New Zealand…housing affordability becoming dominant political issue in Australia…IPSOS poll…report by Matt Wade of The Sydney Morning Herald……The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, which asks respondents to select the three most important issues facing the community, shows housing has jumped from sixth place in Victoria to second place since 2014. In NSW, housing has topped the list of concerns for the past three quarters. Half of NSW respondents now rate housing as one of the nation's most important challenges compared with less than a third in 2014. Other polls have drawn attention to the growing public unease about housing costs. An Essential Vision survey that asks respondents nationally to nominate the "three most important issues for government" shows housing affordability climbed from sixth ranking to second between 2014 and 2017…[read more]
2017 13th ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHIA INTERNATIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY SURVEY
QUICK ACCESS...SURVEY SCHEDULES New Zealand's housing consensus: Where is the political leadership ? 
Ray Morgan
DEMOGRAPHIA IN THE NEWS 2017 ArticlesGroup 1 Most baby boomers want younger generation on the housing ladder ... Rachel Clayton of Fairfax (Aug 2017) The NZ homeowners who hate high house prices are revealed in Labour polling ... Rob Stock of Fairfax NZ (March 2017) Did the November 14 earthquake shake Wellingtonians' faith in city apartments? | Nikki MacDonald | Fairfax / Stuff.co.nz NZ PM Jacinda Ardern pledges widespread NZ housing reform ... MacroBusiness Australia Speech from the throne pledges that Auckland's urban limit will be removed and density controls will be freed up in this term of Government | interest.co.nz Labour support on city limits (abolition) welcomed ... Nick Smith ... Beehive Housing - New Zealand Labour Party NZ Housing Minister Phil (Twyford sounding good ... (Tory) Kiwiblog From boom to gloom: how rising house prices have become a worry ... Sydney Morning Herald Group 2 Ardern: "We believe that housing is a right" ... MacroBusiness Australia Phil Twyford suggests rates hike for property owners near rail, infrastructure projects | Newshub KiwiBuild doubts raised: building boss blames (Auckland Council) consent delays - NZ Herald The Great Inertia Sector: A whistleblower's account of council work where staff pull six-month sickies ... UK Daily Mail Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) - YouTube New Zealand's New Leader Wants to Go Further Than Most to Curb Housing Prices - WSJ Rise of the robot brickie: Automation could wipe out 600,000 construction jobs by 2040 . UK Telegraph Labour's Phil 'Mr Fixit' Twyford fixated on Auckland's housing and transport woes ... Henry Cooke ... Fairfax / Stuff NZ Jacinda Ardern's new government sworn in | Stuff.co.nz Matthew Hooton (and others) on 9 wasted years ... Whaleoil Group 3 Kingmaker delivers NZ a new PM on housing and immigration - Macrobusiness Australia The Story of Malcom McLean ... incorporating New York Times video Malcom McLean and Containerisation | Maersk Line - YouTube The Now-Ubiquitous Shipping Container Was an Idea Before Its Time | Innovation | Smithsonian Ardern v English: Leaders' house price claims face credibility claims | Stuff.co.nz NZ Government shamed for housing failures on morning TV - MacroBusiness TV1 - SUNDAY - GENERATION RENT (VIDEO) Waipa mayor: Affordable housing problem remains unless attitudes change | Stuff.co.nz Housing through the decades, what is affordable? | Newshub Group 4 Opinion: John Key's Govt has failed New Zealand on housing | Newshub HURRICANE HARVEY: A VIEW FROM A RUGGED COMMUNITARIAN ... LEO LINBECK ... NEW GEOGRAPHY Two full-time jobs now needed to service a mortgage on a typical Sydney home ... Sydney Morning Herald Watch: Labour rockets ahead of National in stunning Colmar Brunton Poll result | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ Poverty, gap between rich & poor and housing affordability, housing shortage, and homelessness dominate discussion in lead-up to election, says Roy Morgan poll | interest.co.nz Watch: 'New Zealand is such an optimistic nation' - Jacinda Ardern says election about getting 'basics' right ... TVNZ Housing Affordability Fires Up New Zealand's Voters - Bloomberg Aucklanders caught between high rent increases and low wage growth - high immigration likely to be a contributing factor | interest.co.nz The rate at which new homes are being built relative to our population size is less than half what it was in 1974 | interest.co.nz Group 5 "The housing gap in Auckland is bigger than is being talked about," says CoreLogic | interest.co.nz Economic bounce in provinces as Kiwis flee cities for the good life | Catherine Harris | Stuff.co.nz Auckland Council admits housing accord falls well short of housing target | Catherine Harris | Fairfax - Stuff.co.nz Building minister weighs in on Auckland's housing accord | Catherine Harris | Stuff.co.nz VIDEO: Bill English on affordable housing in Auckland | Radio New Zealand News Despite huge housing shortfall, Auckland consents per capita only middling | Michael Daly | Stuff.co.nz The winding road to housing affordability - Eric Crampton - NZ Initiative | The National Business Review Only one Sydney suburb has a median house price below $500k - MacroBusiness Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) ... Lateline - 19/07/2017: The suburbs where homeowners could feel first impact of potential housing downturn Group 6 Auckland housing plan far too late - Labour | Newshub Housing shortage puts strain on Ireland's revival - POLITICO A Government-commissioned report has found that land use regulations add about 56% to the cost of houses in Auckland; 'prices far outweigh costs in most major NZ cities' ... Interest Co NZ Ireland at risk of creating new property bubble, warns OECD ... The Irish Independent Prof Bill Black & others discuss the Irish financial system performancve ... Youtube Pulte Homes ... Phoenix ... Arizona Christchurch leads cooling house market trend ... Chris Hutching ... The Press Unaffordable cities breed modern-day Luddites - Robert J Shiller - Opinion - Financial News Housing affordability crisis bonds Sydney community across cultures and religions - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Group 7 Auckland's housing shortage to become catastrophic - MacroBusines Australias Home ownership rates continue to plunge, housing stress widespread: Census - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) The Great Manure Crisis of 1894 ... Kiwiblog The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 ... Stephen Davies ... Foundation for Economic Education Happy birthday Bertha Benz - the woman at the wheel of the first ever road trip ... UK Telegraph Levittown history in photos | Newsday William Levitt - Wikipedia Reforming land use regulations ... Edward Glaeser ... Brookings The new wave of Pacific migration: Thousands leave Auckland housing crisis behind for life in the provinces | Stuff.co.nz What home life looks like in a city with the world's least affordable housing (Hong Kong) - National | Globalnews.ca Group 8 Higher prices squeezing both renters and would-be homeowners - The Washington Post 'Completely broken'? Widening inequality fuels discontent among Kiwis | Stuff.co.nz Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) - YouTube The risk is greater than the GFC if we can't fix the housing crisis ... (former Australian Liberal leader) John Hewson ... The Age / SMH Inequality & Housing: through the roof ... The Economist Socialist Thomas Piketty's Theory on Income Equality Wrecked by 26-Year-Old MIT Grad Student ... Breitbart PM English says govt would look at shaking up anything to get Auckland housing supply moving; Says getting WaterCare around the table on land servicing a good idea | interest.co.nz Mental health and housing set to be two of the biggest touch points as politicians duel it out ahead of September's election | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ The real ticking time bomb for the Tories is home ownership ... Allister Heath ... UK Telegraph Group 9 >English aware of housing crisis in 2010 - Salvation Army | Morning Report, 7:21 am on 8 June 2017 | RNZ Capital sees biggest fall in available rental stock as national shortage worsens ... Stuff NZ ACTUALLY THERE IS PLENTY OF LAND AVAILABLE IN WELLINGTON - KIWIBLOG ABC The Business Does Bank Re-Rating ... Digital Finance Analytics Future Fundie warns Aussie bubble as disastrous as Ireland, US - MacroBusiness (NZ economist) Shamubeel Eaqub: The grim reality of NZ's housing unaffordability is hidden | Stuff.co.nz Shamubeel Eaqub: 'Denials of a housing crisis are now simply lies' | Radio New Zealand News Housing through the decades, what is affordable? | Newshub Labour will fight the election on housing - 14-May-2017 - NZ Politics news Group 10 'Don't give me the mums and dads spiel': ScoMo grilled over housing affordability ... The New Daily New Zealand housing market overvalued, could go bust, says Goldman Sachs - New Zealand Herald News "Boomerang Kids": Adult Millennials Returning Home Is Crushing Baby Boomer Budgets ... Zerohedge Australia's housing affordability crisis creating 'dependent generation' - study | Australia news | The Guardian Housing affordability: 87% of Australians fear for future generations | Australia news | The Guardian Sam Dastyari pops Sydney housing bubble - MacroBusiness Australia The risk is greater than the GFC if we can't fix the housing crisis ... Melbourne The Age Bill English less popular than John Key as preferred PM, new poll finds | Stuff.co.nz Why Morrison's London housing affordability junket was a farce - MacroBusiness Group 11 NZ Labour shows way on housing policy - Leith van Onselen - MacroBusiness Australia NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE PRAISES (LABOUR) TWYFORD'S (INFRASTRUCTURE BOND FINANCING) POLICY ... KIWIBLOG Labour's targeted-bond housing infrastructure plan gets support from the New Zealand Initiative, critique from Infrastructure Minister Steven Joyce | interest.co.nz Phil Twyford: Bonds could break Auckland's infrastructure logjam - Business - NZ Herald News Labour's Phil Twyford is pushing out the boundaries of Labour's stance on housing infrastructure, eyeing a govt unit to access finance for developers | interest.co.nz Editorial: Labour's bond proposal makes sense - Business - NZ Herald News (Lead Production Builder) Mike Greer wants Municipal Utility Districts ... Brendon Harre ... Making New Zealand Opinion: Planning rules the cause of housing crisis ... Twyford & Hartwich ... NZ Herald Spillette: Whats not being said about MUDs ... Houston Chronicle Group 12 The risk is greater than the GFC if we can't fix the housing crisis : John Hewson ... The Melbourne Age Aylites ring hands over the rise of "populism" - MacroBusiness Australia Inequality & Housing: Through the roof ... The Economist Pikettys theory on income inequality wrecked by 28 year old MIT grad ... Breitbart Housing revealed as most important issue in helping Kiwis decide on vote | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ RMA reform - a lesson in how not to do it: Pattrick Smellie | Stuff.co.nz Where are buyers winning price battle? | Susan Edmunds| Stuff.co.nz How to make housing affordable? Political parties draw battlelines | Stuff.co.nz NZ Treasury: Government lacking Auckland land supply plan ... MacroBusiness Australia Group 13 Majority want Govt action on affordable housing - poll | 1 NEWS NOW | TVNZ Opinion: John Key's Govt has failed New Zealand on housing | Newshub Housing the dominant concern of Kiwi voters - MacroBusiness Australia New Zealand's 'housing crisis' dominates domestic issues as New Zealand heads towards September election . Roy Morgan | interest.co.nz NEW ZEALAND HOUSING CONSENSUS: WHERE IS THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ? (WITH DEMOGRAPHIA SURVEY RELLEASE 23 JANUARY 2017) ... HUGH PAVLETUCH Christchurch's terrace houses struggling to sell as housing market levels ... Liz McDonald ... The Press Statistics New Zealand says the trend line for the number of new homes being consented has declined by 15% in the past five months | interest.co.nz NZ Treasury: Government lacking Auckland land supply plan - MacroBusiness Woman with $200,000 in savings can't buy Sydney home | Daily Mail Online Group 14 NZ needs 60,000 more homes, ANZ says | Business | Stuff.co.nz Bank bosses see debt-to-income ratio between 5 and 7 as ideal in any new RBNZ macro-prudential tool | interest.co.nz Amid increasing debate over whether Auckland can build enough houses, new Statistics New Zealand estimates suggest the city's population is growing even faster than was thought | interest.co.nz Census data shows Houston leads in population growth across U.S. ... Click2Houston NZ Labour throws down the gauntlet on housing - MacroBusiness Deluge of affordability data forces Australian government's hand | The New Daily How to make housing affordable? Political parties draw battlelines | Stuff.co.nz PM John Key on Housing Reform 2007 - YouTube < Housing Affordability Announcement - 29 October 2012 - YouTube Group 15 Pollster Roy Morgan says new Prime Minister Bill English must find a solution to New Zealand's growing 'Housing Crisis' - the largest problem facing New Zealanders in late 2016 | interest.co.nz Sydney housing: New survey paints dire picture for Harbour City's middle-income earners - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Hong Kong housing now so unaffordable, that "coffin homes" are the new trend | Property News Buying a home in Miami-Dade is so expensive it could hurt the economy | Nicholas Nehamas | Miami Herald Seven Centuries of (British) Real Estate Prices | Global Financial Data 'Denials of a housing crisis are now simply lies' . comment . Shamubeel Eaqub | Radio New Zealand News Housing affordability crisis: social divide affects a generation ... Bernard Salt ... The Australian Aussie housing affordability far worse than Demographia claims - MacroBusiness NZ housing values surge past $NZ1 trillion - MacroBusiness Group 16 Bill English's cute tactic of removing one of the country's perceived biggest problems from the list of ministerial names may come back to bite | interest.co.nz 'Severely unaffordable': Sydney's housing nightmare laid bare in new survey | Shanghai Daily New Zealand housing most unaffordable in the world - The Economist | Newshub Housing affordability in Auckland "absolutely ridiculous" - Hugh Pavletich - Audio Player - Audio - RadioLIVE Christchurch bucks trend in Demographia housing affordability survey | The National Business Review Housing in many NZ cities 'severely unaffordable' | Radio New Zealand News The NZ homeowners who hate high house prices are revealed in Labour polling | Stuff.co.nz 2016 ArticlesGroup 1 MEDIA RELEASE DEMOGRAPHIA IN THE NEWS ! AUSTRALIAN SENATOR BOB DAY AO SPEECH 'THE DEMOGRAPHIA HOUSING SURVEY' DEMOGRAPHIA AUSTRALIA IS LAUNCHED ! New Zealand house price (inflation) since 2002 - Kiwiblog High-rise apartments are bad to live in, bad for society, says respected architect - The Age (Melb Au) Hong Kong developers rush to build ever smaller homes, but buyers beware - SCMP How Houston regulates land use - Nolan Gray - Market Urbanism Group 2 How Houston densified - Montgomery Planning (pdf) Global housing affordability: What do we know - Shlomo Angel & Achilles Kellergis The era of robots: Builders to lose jobs as machines take over says construction boss - UK Telegraph Urban containment, endangered working families and beleagured minorities - Wendell Cox - New Geography Short supply, bad infrastructure blamed for Canada housing bubble - Reuters AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver: Why you should NOT buy a house right now ... Sydney Morning Herald How Texas is reshaping urbanism ... Wendell Cox & Joel Kotkin ... Dallas Morning News Dont count on making big bucks from your home ... Straits Times Singapore Is Crushing Hong Kong in the Race to Cut Home Prices - Bloomberg Group 3 Australian housing market now valued at $A6 trillion - Core Logic AUSTRALIAN MEDIAN LOT PRICE HITS STRATOSPHERIC $A237,575 ... HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA (HIA) Low supply liftsd US residential lot prices (from a recent $US30,000) to $US45,000 ... Wall Street Journal United States median residential Lot prices now $US45,000 ... National Association Of HomeBuilders (NAHB) Government regulation in the price of a new home ... NAHB Raw land costs $US2,000 per Lot in Arizona ... Phoenix Business Journal Victorian (australia) homeownership rates collapse - Domain com Steven R Spillette: What's not being said about Municipal; Utility Districts (MUDs) ... Houston Chronicle Group 4 NEW ZEALAND'S BUBBLE ECONOMY IS VULNERABLE (April 2014) - HUGH PAVLETICH - SCOOP NEWS 'HOUSING AFFORDABILITY' THE MAJOR CONCERN OF NEW ZEALANDERS - IPSOS POLL UMR Poll: Most Kiwis want lower house prices ... Interest Co NZ Liam Dann: Are the Banks bracing for a storm ... New Zealand Herald Struggling first-home buyers finally find their West Auckland dream home - for $720,000 (should be less than $200,000) ... New Zealand Herald Auckland's supply reforms fail affordability test - Leith van Onselen - MacroBusiness Australia . with Pavletich comments. Mood of the Boardroom: Bosses to Government - Act on housing ... NZ Herald NZ home ownership at lowest level in more than 60 years | Stuff.co.nz $18b construction industry calls for state help to smooth over volatility in sector - Business - NZ Herald News NZ POLITICS DAILY: Politicians are failing on housing | The National Business Review Group 5 BOOK EXTRAT - Generation Rent - Shamubeel & Selena Eaqub - NZ National Business Review Christchurch Dilemmas: The city's housing woes - The Press Call to restore hope for homeless through inquiry - The Press Labour support on city limits (abolition) welcomed - Housing Minister Nick Amith - 18 May 2016 New policy proposed for urban development - Housing Minister Nick Smith - 2 June 2016 $1b fund to accelerate housing infrastructure - Finance Minister Emglish & Housing Minister Smith - 3 July 2016 Zoning laws hurt the poor - Kiwiblog The rate at which new homes are being built based on population, is half what it was in 1974 - Interest Co NZ Urban Planning: Whats broken and how to fix it - NZ Productivity Commission Group 6 Failed planning system only part of the problem - NZ Council for Infrastructure Development The RBNZ (following UK and Ireland lead) is keen to impose loan to income limits ... Interest Co NZ Leaving Auckland for the regions a smart money move | Stuff.co.nz The $1 million average Auckland house means interest bonanza for banks | Stuff.co.nz The great half-billion KiwiSaver home withdrawal | Stuff.co.nz Apartment living with Hugh Pavletich - Audio Player - Audio - RadioLIVE New Zealand tops global list for house price rises | Radio New Zealand News Housing through the decades, what is affordable? | Business | Newshub Auckland's Unitary Plan would take 55 days to read | Stuff.co.nz Group 7 Five successful cities with cheaper housing than New Zealand - and what we can learn from them - Michael Daly - Fairfax NZ Auckland housing crisis: House of the rising sum - New Zealand Listener Housing campaigner predicts spiralling house prices will be Key's 'Waterloo' | Stuff.co.nz New Zealand's homes top an 'obscene' $900 billion combined value | Stuff.co.nz EDITORIAL: LABOURS BOND PROPOSAL MAKES SENSE ... NZ HERALD NZ GREENS SUPPORT SCRAPPING URBAN LIMITS ... KIWIBLOG NZ LABOUR PARTY: ABOLISH URBAN LIMITS ... NZ HERALD John Keys Govt has failed New Zealanders on housing ... TV3 Newshub EDITORIAL: HOUSING IN ORDER ... NZ LISTENER Group 8 The missing piece of the Auckland housing puzzle (Houston) ... Catherine Harris ... Fairfax New Zealand Hopes rise that Auckland's children won't grow up to be renters ... Rob Stock ... Fairfax New Zealand 'We live in a housing hell' - Housing commentator Hugh Pavletich - Audio Player - Audio - RadioLIVE Housing remains a challenge for Auckland ... Auckland City Council Act and save Aussie dream ... Adelaide Advertiser Demographia Survey blow to Auckland housing confidence ... Property Council of New Zealand Auckland has the fifth least-affordable houses in the world - Anne Gibson - NZ Herald News
... and much more ... Demographia news search ...
Talking housing affordability across the globe with Hugh Pavletich
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