HUGH PAVLETICH
Former Fellow - Urban Development Institute of Australia
Former President –
Southern Division – Property Council of New Zealand
Co author – Annual
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
CONTACT
+64 3 343 9944
Christchurch, New Zealand
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General update - February 2019
Welcome to Performance Urban Planning
DEFINITION OF AN AFFORDABLE HOUSING MARKETFor metropolitan areas to rate as 'affordable' and ensure that housing bubbles are not triggered, housing prices should not exceed three times gross annual household earnings. To allow this to occur, new starter housing of an acceptable quality to the purchasers, with associated commercial and industrial development, must be allowed to be provided on the urban fringes at 2.5 times the gross annual median household income of that urban market (refer Demographia Survey Schedules for guidance). The critically important Development Ratios for this new fringe starter housing, should be 17 - 23% serviced lot / section cost - to balance the actual housing construction. Ideally through a normal building cycle, the Median Multiple should move from a Floor Multiple of 2.3, through a Swing Multiple of 2.5 to a Ceiling Multiple of 2.7 - to ensure maximum stability and optimal medium and long term performance of the residential construction sector. …November 2017…The new New Zealand Governments programme…It's official: The Government is promising to remove Auckland's urban growth boundary as part of the legislative programme for this term…[read more] Remove barriers that are stopping Auckland growing up and out Labour will remove the Auckland urban growth boundary and free up density controls. This will give Auckland more options to grow, as well as stopping landbankers profiteering and holding up development. New developments, both in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand, will be funded through innovative infrastructure bonds…[read more] …March 2017…New Zealand's Planning Law (Resource Management Act) Amendments…then Opposition Paties cooperation…with extract Newsroom report by Bernard Hickey…It is important too to understand the significance of the opposition political parties working together within the MMP environment…as illustrated with the RMA amendment legislation back in March (much the same with the HASHA legislation September 2016)…reported by Bernard Hickey of Newsroom soon after…[read more] Just in case you missed it…One curious coda to the RMA debate that concluded last week was that the Opposition parties plus ACT and United Future all voted again during the third reading debate for amendments that would have abolished Rural Urban Growth Boundaries and allowed the financing of infrastructure bonds paid for with targeted rates. The amendments were defeated by National and the Maori Party. The irony of a Government that has railed against restrictions on land development by councils voting against removing those restrictions should be noted. And also that the proposal for infrastructure bonds was backed by the right-leaning New Zealand Initiative and voted for by the Greens and Labour. Strange times indeed. …May 2016…Previous Government then Housing Minister Nick Smith…The new position by the Labour opposition calling for an abolition of city limits has been welcomed by Building and Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith. "This is a welcome repositioning by Labour. Tight city limits and not allowing intensification is at the core of Auckland's housing problems. It is limiting new housing developments, driving up section and house prices and encouraging land banking…[read more] …November 2017…following New Zealand…housing affordability becoming dominant political issue in Australia…IPSOS poll…report by Matt Wade of The Sydney Morning Herald……The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, which asks respondents to select the three most important issues facing the community, shows housing has jumped from sixth place in Victoria to second place since 2014. In NSW, housing has topped the list of concerns for the past three quarters. Half of NSW respondents now rate housing as one of the nation's most important challenges compared with less than a third in 2014. Other polls have drawn attention to the growing public unease about housing costs. An Essential Vision survey that asks respondents nationally to nominate the "three most important issues for government" shows housing affordability climbed from sixth ranking to second between 2014 and 2017…[read more] 2019 15th ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHIA INTERNATIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY SURVEY
Access IPSOS New Zealand Issues Monitors
New Zealand Vowed 100,000 New Homes to Ease Crunch. So Far It Has Built 47. - The New York Times
Lack of land, infrastructure blamed for rising Tauranga house prices … Newshub
Labour will lose in 2020 without more progress on housing affordability: Pavletich - NZ Herald
REINZ welcomes Tindall’s comments on housing affordability | Scoop News … The political direction is clear …… extract …… In our view there are three big challenges that have to be addressed: 1. A broken system for financing infrastructure 2. A planning system based on urban containment 3. The failure of governments until now, both local and central, to actively work with the private sector to enable urban growth and expansion. … concluding …… I talked about the land banking and speculative economy, and the pressure cooker that has given us some of the most obscenely expensive housing in the world. These moves are designed to change that. … … If we do these things we can truly flood the market with development opportunities. We can break the land banking economy, and drive down the cost of urban land. We can achieve more competitive urban land markets. And industry that is more focused on development and building places of enduring value instead of land banking and speculation. That is the pathway to more affordable housing, and a systemic fix of the crisis that has caused so much hardship, and sucked so much of our national wealth into residential property instead of the productive economy. … read more via hyperlink above …Don Brash praises Phil Twyford's housing speech | Newshub Housing Minister's concern as report reveals New Zealand cities 'performing poorly' | Newshub Estimated population up in all regions … 22 October 2019… Statistics NZ Greater Christchurch (ChCh,; Waimak; Selwyn) growth 2.0% Christchurch City councillors in line for 11 per cent pay rise … Tina Law … The Press Speech to Government Economics Network 2019 Conference … Hon Phil Twyford … MZ Govt / Beehive Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor November 2019 Survey finds Kiwis' backyard dream still alive and well (Westpac Bank) … Scoop New Zealand New stand-alone houses (consents / approvals) pick up October … Statistics New Zealand The 'New Zealand Dream' is still alive … Wendell Cox … New Geography Californians Flock To Texas As Corporations Seek Cheaper Pastures … Zerohedge … extract …… But take some comfort in the latest results from D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder. On Wednesday, the Arlington company reported that home closings soared 13% in the latest quarter, extending a streak of double-digit gains that started in 2012. Horton is on pace to close almost 57,000 homes this fiscal year, finally topping its previous peak in 2006, just before the housing crash. Its stock price has roared back, too. Horton's market value tops $17 billion, up from $2.9 billion eight years ago. And last week, the company's board authorized $1 billion in stock buybacks.… One key to its run: Horton has ramped up construction of lower-priced homes, appealing to first-time buyers and empty-nesters looking for more affordable options. . Its stock price has roared back, too. Horton's market value tops $17 billion, up from $2.9 billion eight years ago. And last week, the company's board authorized $1 billion in stock buybacks.… . "The demand is there, if you can position and drive a price that they can buy," Auld said. Horton has a deep supply of land - 300,000 lots either owned or controlled. And it operates in 87 markets in 29 states. … read more via hyperlink above …Horton's edge on price. Average selling price for select builders' homes in second quarter of 2019, in thousands:
D R HORTON - AMERICA'S LARGEST HOMEBUILDER Lot Values Hit Record Highs…Natalia Sineavskaia… U.S National Association of Home Builders http://eyeonhousing.org/2019/11/lot-values-hit-record-highs/ According to NAHB's analysis of the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC) data, median single-family lot prices outpaced inflation once again (4.4% vs 2.4%) and reached new record high in 2018, with half of the lots selling at or above $49,500. The most dramatic rise in lot values is observed in the West South Central division where median lot values more than doubled since the housing boom years.… … read more via hyperlink above …
Ipsos MORI Issues Index United Kingdom September 2019: Lack of faith in politics reaches new high New Infrastructure Funding Tool … The Treasury … NZ Government
2018 14th ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHIA INTERNATIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY SURVEY Introduction Section - Message from Hugh Pavletich . 'My home country New Zealand is the global leader in dealing with political impediments, so that the supply of new affordable housing is restored. The public conversation to restore affordable housing began in earnest early 2005, with the release of the 1st Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. Back in 2007, then Opposition Leader (now Sir) John Key made it clear within this interview that lack of land supply was the major problem. This has been a near 14 year process of evolutionary change, with the engagement of the public and responsible media. In turn this has pressured politicians to respond. Public opinion is the driver, as increasing numbers of New Zealanders better understand the true costs of unnecessary politically induced housing inflation to themselves and their wider families. The initial advocacy phase ran through to October 2012, with the major Government announcement to focus on land supply, infrastructure financing, process and construction costs. Over recent years broader consensus ( more , more ) has taken place. To illustrate further, just prior to Christmas 2017, Stephen Sellwood of Infrastructure New Zealand and Bill Evans of major builder Flatcher Living repeated again, that the focus must be on land supply and the appropriate debt financing of infrastructure. We are now moving to the implementation phase, with a recent change to a centre - left Labour led reformist government. Historically in New Zealand, Labour has been the political party of reform. More extensive information is available at my archival website Performance Urban Planning. Note in particular the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern / Housing Minister Phil Twyford section near the top of the=is website, to better understand the new governments proposals to restore housing affordability.' Inaugural New Zealand IPSOS Survey… A recent survey on key issues concerning New Zealanders has shown that housing accessibility and affordability are at the forefront of people's minds. The first of the quarterly New Zealand Issues Monitor reports, run by global market research company Ipsos, interviewed 610 respondents over the age of 16. It sought to track what New Zealanders were concerned about, who is worried about what and which political parties are seen to be best able to improve matters. … [read more] 
The Salvation Army's casting doubts on the ability of government departments to deliver on the Kiwibuild affordable housing programme and is calling for establishment of an expert group to deliver the required houses. A media statement from the Salvation Army said that "growing uncertainty" over whether Kiwibuild can "reignite the Kiwi dream" of homeownership needs to be countered. "Recent reports from Treasury and The Chief Executive of New Zealand Certified Builders indicating the programme may not be able to deliver the housing required creates uncertainty for families who see Kiwibuild as their path to homeownership," the statement said…[read more] Lessons from Greater Christchurch . READ MORE: New Zealand Issues Monitor (IPSOS September) - Concerns about housing grow (Original title) Don't' touch the HAM: Its off ! …Rob Stock …Stuff / Fairfax NZ … incorporating readers survey below …What should a 'median' house cost? (2.2k Votes)
…so that today…different forms of dwellings should be about or below these Median Multiples to rate as 'affordable'…
Why are NZ homes so pricey? It has nothing to do with avocados | Charlie Gates | Stuff.co.nz
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